Bad Apologies

I'm pretty proud of my predictions so far. I was wrong about Rhode Island, it went to the Democrats. I'm also hoping I was wrong about Virginia, and it goes to the Democrats. I was also, elatedly, wrong about Maryland Governor. Ehrlich lost! Now the Senate hangs on Missouri, Montana, and Virginia. I guess we'll see what world we wake up to. It will certainly be a world that has 4-5 more gay-hating states. Bastards. Off to bed!

Labels: NaBloPoMo, Politics

I forgot my tiebreaker guesses:

TIE BREAKERS
67% Percentage Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) will recieve in her Senate race
38% Percentage Rep. Katherine Harris (R-Fla.) will receive in her Senate race
61% Percentage House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) will receive in his House race

Another day, another post!

Labels: NaBloPoMo, Politics

I've had two beers, so its time to make predictions. I'll note that I'm not as optimistic as some, although I'd like to be. I'm reserving my optimism for the solid defeat of Rick Santorum (as a referrendum on hate) and the sweeping crush of Katherine Harris, whose shameful behavior in the 2000 election in FL (and I'm talking specifically about her stonewalling against what was so blatantly legally required) earns her a slot in Hell with those who oppose the Estate Tax and Ticketmaster. May the tide she has ridden for too long crush her in the undertow.

I'm following the Washington Post Outlook Crystal Ball Contest for these predictions. Thanks NaBloPoMo!

SENATE*
51 REPUBLICANS, 47 Democrats, 2 Others

HOUSE
205 Republicans, 230 DEMOCRATS

GOVERNORS
22 Republicans, 28 DEMOCRATS

Virginia Senate--Allen 52% Webb 47%
Connecticute Senate--Schlessinger 8% Lamont 40% Lieberman 52%
Tennessee Senate--Corker 51% Ford 48%
Missouri Senate--Talent 48% McCaskill 52%

TIE BREAKERS
% Percentage Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) will recieve in her Senate race
% Percentage Rep. Katherine Harris (R-Fla.) will receive in her Senate race
% Percentage House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) will receive in his House race

HOT HUNCH[S - I've got two!]
Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) will defeat Baltimore Mayor martin O'Malley in Maryland
The Democrats will pick up MO, MT, OH, and PA in the Senate.

Labels: NaBloPoMo, Politics

Thanks to the Government Affairs Institute, I am ready to go with my election game card, below, which can help you track the 61 House races the Cook Political Report is closely watching. Of those, 54 are currently held by Republicans. 13 are in play in the Senate, with eight in Republican hands.

Here are those key races, organized by poll-closing time (the first chance for networks to announce their predictions--unless the races are too close to call). Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats in the House, 6 in the Senate (and it is okay if Lieberman wins as an Independent, he'll still side with the Dems).

By the way, I'm also curious to watch the stem cell research amendment in Missouri and the removal of immunity for judges in South Dakota (which I support and oppose, respectively).

I'll think about making my own predictions, ala the Washington Post Outlook Section, later tonight after a drink or two.

6:00 Most polls close in Indiana and Kentucky
House
Republican held seats:
Indiana districts 2,8,9
Kentucky 2,3,4

7:00 Polls close in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and in most of New Hampshire
House
Republican held seats:
Florida 13,16,22
Virginia 2
New Hampshire 2
Democratic held seats:
Georgia 8,12
Vermont at-large
Senate
Virginia (Republican seat)

7:30 Polls close in Ohio, West Virginia, and most of North Carolina
House
Republican held seats:
Ohio 1,2,15,18
North Carolina 11
Senate
Ohio (Republican seat)

8:00 Polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, most of Michigan, and most of Texas
House
Republican held seats:
Connecticut 2,4,5
Illinois 6
New Jersey 7
Pennsylvania 4,6,7,8,10
Texas 22,23
Democratic held seats:
Illinois 8
Texas 17
Senate
Republican held seats:
Missouri, Pennsylvania, Tennessee
Democratic held seats:
Maryland, New Jersey, Michigan

9:00 Polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, Wyoming, and most of South Dakota
House
Republican held seats:
Arizona 1,5,8
Colorado 4,5,7
Minnesota 1,6
Nebraska 3
New Mexico 1
New York 20,24,25,26,29
Wisconsin 8
Wyoming at large
Democratic held seats:
Louisiana 3
Senate
Republican held seats:
Arizona, Rhode Island
Democratic held seats:
Minnesota

10:00 Polls close in Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah, most of Idaho, most of North Dakota, and most of Oregon
House
Republican held seats
Iowa 1
Nevada 2,3
Idaho 1
Democratic held seats:
Iowa 3
Senate
Montana (Republican seat)

11:00 Polls close in California, Hawaii, and Washington
House
Republican held seats:
California 4,11,50
Washington 8
Senate
Washington (Democratic seat)

12:00 Polls close in Alaska

*I recognize Bush didn't actually say this word. He's still a brilliant idiot.

Labels: Politics